IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston looks for the betting value in this weekend’s world title action involving the Charlo twins Jermell and Jermall.
Twin brothers Jermell and Jermall Charlo are in action on Saturday night in competitive fights. Yet while each is facing a live opponent, the sense one has is that this is intended to be a showcase night for the talented twins from Houston, Texas; the launching pad for future big PPV events involving the brothers. But, as we all know, the best-laid plans in boxing don’t always work out.
Jermell Charlo faces a heavy hitter in Jeison Rosario, of the Dominican Republic, in a 154-pound unification title bout, while in the middleweight division Jermall Charlo defends his WBC title in potentially the toughest and most dangerous fight of his career against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, the New York-based Ukrainian who has twice failed narrowly in championship bids.
The Showtime network is trying something a little different, with basically two fight cards on one night, separated by a brief intermission, with Jermell Charlo topping one card and Jermall headlining the other. The venue is the Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut, with the usual Covid-19 safety precautions and no crowd. Here’s a look at the two fights from a wagering perspective. We’ll start with Jermell.
JERMELL CHARLO vs JEISON ROSARIO
For the WBC, WBA ‘Super’ and IBF 154lbs titles
It’s understandable that Jermell Charlo is favourite against Rosario. Charlo is the more polished boxer, he’s more experienced and he has the higher profile. People no doubt still remember Rosario getting stopped in six rounds by Nathaniel Gallimore, the tough but not exceptional Jamaican fighter, and Rosario could only draw with the averagely skilled Mark Anthony Hernandez in a six-rounder 10 months later.
However, I think that Rosario is starting to find himself as a fighter. He upset the odds by soundly defeating the flashy and talented Justin DeLoach, stopped Hernandez in a rematch and surprised just about everyone in the boxing community when he stopped Julian Williams in the fifth round in January to win the WBA ‘Super’ and IBF 154-pound titles.
Money has been showing for Charlo, who opened as a 2/9 favourite (-450) and is now priced as high as 1/6 on favourite (-600) at some shops, while Betfred offers Charlo by KO TKO DQ at 4/6 on. Still, this isn’t necessarily going to be a cakewalk for Charlo.
I believe that Rosario never had a proper training camp until the fight with Julian Williams. “He trained any way he could figure out and he would take a lot of last-minute fights,” Rosario’s trainer, Luis Perez, told a virtual press conference earlier this month. “He’s doing the proper training camp now and eating the proper way. I think you have to knock Rosario out to beat him.”
Meanwhile, Charlo, who is defending the WBC title, told the same virtual press conference that he is stronger and faster than he’s ever been. “I’m more ready for this fight than any fight I’ve ever had,” he asserted.
Photo: Amanda Westcott/Showtime.
Rosario is still a bit of a mystery. He fell apart under pressure against Gallimore, but that was three years ago. He is more experienced and more mature now. Still, in April of last year he could only win by split decision against Jorge Cota, a willing but rather crude Mexican fighter who was subsequently blown away by Charlo in just three rounds.
Charlo showed impressive late-rounds firing power in his last fight when he walked down and stopped slick-boxing Tony Harrison to avenge his only defeat (a debatable one at that). He gave Rosario a steely-eyed look at the weigh-in.
If you go purely by form lines, Charlo looks on a higher level because he performed far better than Rosario against their common opponent Jorge Cota. But things don’t always work out according to form. And, interestingly, Cota said on a Showtime opinion poll released Thursday that he is picking Rosario to win. I actually give Rosario a pretty good chance and odds of 7/2 (+350) at Betfred are quite enticing but, when all is said and done, I think Charlo is likely to be a bit too sharp and skilled. I think there is a good chance that the fight will not go the full 12 rounds but the oddsmaker agrees. You’re looking at laying around 2/5 on (-250) if you fancy playing “won’t go distance”.
Now, let’s take a look at Jermall Charlo’s fight in the night’s co-main event.
JERMALL CHARLO vs SERGIY DEREVYANCHENKO
For Charlo’s WBC middleweight title
Derevyanchenko is a tough Ukrainian fighter who trains in New York under the direction of Andre Rozier. He came up just short in two previous world title attempts, losing a split decision to Daniel Jacobs and a close but unanimous decision against Gennadiy Golovkin in Derevyanchenko’s last fight.
In each of those bouts, Derevyanchenko was down in the first round but came back strongly. Interestingly, in the consensus scoring of the judges (where two judges or all three agree on the scoring of a round), those were both one-point fights, 114-113 in favour of Jacobs and GGG respectively.
Charlo, 30, is the younger fighter by four years and has the height and reach advantages. Derevyanchenko brings pressure and workrate and he appeared in tremendous condition at the weigh-in, but Charlo looks more polished and would seem to have the edge in firing power.
Photo: Amanda Westcott/Showtime.
At times, Charlo can wait too long as he seeks to land precise blows and there is always the chance that Derevyanchenko could outwork him. But Derevyanchenko busts up a bit. He was cut over one eye and under the other eye in his win over Jack Culcay, while in the Golovkin fight Derevyanchenko was cut over the right eye as early as the second round.
Although Derevyanchenko has had only 15 fights he had a deep amateur background. He’s a seasoned veteran. But he’s had tough, gruelling fights — Culcay, not known for being a big puncher, actually wobbled him with a right hand in the 10th round.
I’m expecting another gritty effort from Derevyanchenko but I think Charlo will come through with his sharper boxing skills. The over 10.5 rounds proposition has been priced at around 2/7 (-350). That’s a tad higher than I’d feel comfortable endorsing although this does shape up as a full-distance fight. The “fight won’t go distance” proposition has some merit, actually, at 2/1 (+200) on Betfred because Derevyanchenko is susceptible to cuts and isn’t terribly hard to hit. But this is likely to be Derevyanchenko’s last chance at winning a world title and you know he will be giving everything he has.
Charlo is an 8/15 favourite (-185) at Betfred and that looks about right. But the bet I like most is Jermell Charlo KO TKO DQ against Jeison Rosario. While Rosario is a big, strong, heavy-handed fighter I think Charlo will be able to find him with well-timed right hands.
Main image and all photos: Amanda Westcott/Showtime.