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Long Shot Betting Picks: Beterviev-Smith

Artur Beterbiev & Joe Smith Jr

The inaugural Longshots column correctly predicted a draw between Quaise Khademi and Ijaz Ahmed at 16/1. It will not always be that good. This week is a case in point. There are few fights to choose from and fewer viable underdogs.

However, we will not be deterred as there are still some interesting prices to consider.

The Longshot

Sooner or later, someone is going to catch Artur Beterbiev at the right time. The Canada-based Russian is now 37 and has been cutting weight to make the light-heavyweight limit of 175lbs for almost eight years now. Some unfancied underdog will eventually hit the jackpot. There is a case to be made for Joe Smith being that man; he has power in both hands, a solid chin and fights at a high pace. However, the WBO champion is also there to be hit, which against Beterbiev, inevitably ends in disaster.

For those that reckon Smith can win, the 10/1 available for him to do so by stoppage must be tempting.

The more likely outcome, in my opinion, is that Beterbiev halts Smith in the second half of the fight.

Betfred are offering a Boxing Social Bet Boost on the Russian to win between 7-12 at 11/10. That seems like good value to me, but it is too short a price for this column. Beterbiev’s last three wins have all come during rounds nine or 10 and I feel this bout will likely go late too. The IBF and WBC champion to win between 7-9 is priced at 5/2, but the pick here is going to be Beterbiev to stop his opponent between 10-12 at 10/3. Those odds translate to an implied probability of 23.1 per cent. Given that three of Beterbiev’s last six fights have ended during those frames, I feel 10/3 is a good price.

The Double

U.S. Olympian Troy Isley goes in search of his sixth victory as a professional against Donte Stubbs.

Navy veteran Stubbs has carved out a living by testing prospects on televised cards and has yet to be stopped in his five defeats. However, I feel Isley is a level above the opponents Stubbs has faced so far. Top Rank choose their Olympians carefully and have a high success rate in guiding those they
sign to world titles. Isley picks his punches to the body well and I believe those shots will be key to slowing Stubbs down, before halting the journeyman in the second half of the six-rounder. I like Isley between 4-6 at 7/4.

Irishman Keane McMahon hopes to turn his life around by upsetting the odds against Jahyae Brown.

McMahon is a 10/1 underdog, having lost two of his last three. There is not an awful lot of footage available of Brown, but from what I have seen, he is not the most devastating puncher and is comfortable on the backfoot. Those factors, allied with the fact that McMahon is a decent pro, 2/1 for the fight going the distance at 2/1 is a good value.

If you like both bets, the double is available at over 7/1.

The Treble

Robeisy Ramirez faces the biggest test of his professional career to date when he takes on Abraham Nova. Ramirez finally appears to have developed into a good pro are a slow start, following a distinguished amateur career. Nova himself is a solid fighter, but the feeling is that the Cuban is a better one.

As Graham Houston stated in the Weekend Betting Angle the 2/1 on Ramirez to win by stoppage seems wide.

Add that to the double and this week’s treble is available at odds over 28/1.