Each week, Graham Houston provides detailed betting analysis of the big fights in the Weekend Betting Angle. The International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee has an impressive strike rate and often finds the (little) value available.
A combination of cynical matchmaking and risk-adverse odds result in “good” prices still being short in comparison to markets available in other sports. So, here are some more speculative alternatives:
The Long Shot
A decent bet at long odds can be hard to find in boxing. Draws are rare in boxing, and are usually priced as such. Given the volatility of judging, you can never be certain of the outcome when fights go to the scorecards, as such, the draw is a useful cover bet. However, this week, the draw is a playable option, rather than just a safety net.
Ijaz Ahmed and Quaise Khademi fight for the third time, with the vacant British super flyweight title at stake. They last faced each other in August of last year, with the same strap on the line. On that occasion, the result was a split draw, with only two points between them on the widest card. Their previous meeting took place in February of 2021, over 10 rounds with Ahmed winning a majority decision.
Khademi is the more skilled fighter and the favourite for to be victorious, but that was the case in their previous bouts also. We’ve seen how this plays out, Ahmed is tough and determined, Khademi lands more eye-catching shots and judges struggle to split them. The draw is as short as 12/1 in places, but is still available at 16/1 with BetFred. That price appears to be wide, given the outcomes of the previous two bouts of the trilogy.
Olympic middleweight gold medallist, Lauren Price, makes her debut tonight against Valgerdur Gudstensdottir, over six rounds. Gudstensdottir previously gave a good account of herself against Katerina Thanderz, in 2018, but that was down at lightweight. Tonight’s bout has been made at a catchweight of 145lbs. The size and skill advantage Price will enjoy will be significant. I like the KO at 11/8.
Willy Hutchinson returns for the first time since his shock defeat to Lennox Clarke for the British super-middleweight title. The Scotsman takes on Karel Horejsek. The Czech has only been stopped twice in 13 defeats, the last of which was over six years ago. Hutchinson will likely have some ring rust to shake off and Horejsek is as tough as they come. Hutchinson to win on points seems good value at 9/5.
If you like both bets, the double is available at over 5/1.
Viddal Riley takes on Jone Volau over six rounds, at cruiserweight. The former trainer of KSI should be able to stop Volau at any time he likes. Riley’s two stoppage wins to date have been in the opening round and Volau has failed to hear the bell at the end of the first round in two of his last three fights. I would not discourage anyone backing Riley to win in the first round at 9/4.
If you add that to the aforementioned double, odds of over 20/1 are available.