IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston looks for the betting value in tonight’s clash between the comebacking Teofimo Lopez and Mexican brawler Pedro Campa.
Teo Lopez returns to the ring this Saturday night in the 140-pound division and obviously he’s an off-the-charts favourite (1/33 at Betfred) to defeat Pedro Campa in their scheduled 10-rounder in Las Vegas.
Really, the only way to bet on this fight is to take a stab at one of the various propositions. And there’s nothing obvious out there in terms of a “good” bet.
If you like the idea of Lopez winning inside the distance you’re looking at a price tag of 1/4 (general). There are various total-rounds propositions. “Over 4.5” is generally priced at about 5/7 with the under 4.5 at even money. The “over 5.5” is about 11/10, the under 2/3. So the oddsmaker expects a Lopez KO/TKO win somewhere around the fifth round. It’s hard to argue with that.
Lopez says he was unwell going into the fight with George Kambosos when he shockingly lost his lightweight belts and his undefeated record. There were weight-making issues and I believe some domestic turmoil.
That fight was nine months ago. Lopez looks in good shape at 140, trim and muscular. When he was tearing through the lightweight division he called it The Takeover. His return is being billed as Takeover 2.
Lopez’ promoter, Top Rank, seems to have found a perfect opponent in Mexico’s Pedro Campa. While Campa has an excellent record (34-1-1) he’s nothing out of the ordinary. He’s a rugged 30-year-old from the state of Sonora in Mexico with a come-forward style. Lopez won’t have to go looking for him.
Campa’s only loss was on a seventh-round knockout back in 2017. He was fighting on level terms with Carlos Jimenez when he got caught by a left hook. Campa went down hard and the fight was waved off immediately.
Since then Campa has been unbeaten. He had a very good win in his last fight, stopping an undefeated boxer, Carlos Sanchez, in the third round. Campa dropped his opponent heavily with a left hook in the second round but the bout was stopped early in the third when Sanchez indicated he had injured his left wrist. So, although Campa had the big second round, it was something of an inconclusive ending.
Campa has had struggles with unexceptional fighters. He’s willing but he’s hittable. The Top Rank people have selected him for a reason, which is to make Lopez look good. A stoppage win for Lopez looks likely. But how many rounds? That’s the question.
My guess is that Lopez will want to take his time and not rush anything. He has 10 rounds to work with here. I think he’ll look to make Campa miss and break him down with sharp counter punches.
Of course, Teo could nail Campa with a big punch and take him out of the fight at any moment, the way he did Richard Commey. But this is in effect Campa’s world title fight, by far the biggest bout of his career. I’m sure he will give it all he has.
In his first bout at 140, I’m thinking that Lopez will be a bit wary initially. So I lean towards the fight going over 4.5 rounds. Campa is now working with Los Angeles trainer Manny Robles, which indicates he has gone the extra mile in his preparation. I think Campa can get to the midway mark of round five but it’s not a confident pick.
On the same show, Puerto Rico’s undefeated rising star Xander Zayas takes on rugged Mexican fighter Elias Espadas in an eight-rounder and, again, the A-side is a prohibitive favourite (1/100 at Betfred).
The total rounds for this bout has been set at 5.5. Zayas is the type who looks to let his hands go and hurt his opponents, reminiscent of the young Felix Trinidad, but Espadas has never been stopped in 27 bouts. The match is made at 154lbs but Espadas has boxed as a middleweight and his weight has even been listed as high as 172lbs (for a bout early in his career), so it would seem he’s the naturally bigger fighter. And Espadas is a mature fighter at the age of 31. But can he last 5.5 rounds with the young tiger Zayas?
The odds are basically pick ’em for the total-rounds proposition. Espadas did go 10 rounds with Olympic bronze medallist Yamaguchi Falcao in 2018 and won some rounds. Falcao got credit for a knockdown in the second round but it seemed as if Espadas was off-balance more than anything. Later in the fight Falcao had a point deducted for boring in with his head. Espadas fought well, knocking Falcao’s gum shield out of his mouth with a right hand. It was certainly a respectable performance. But Falcao isn’t considered a seriously hard hitter, whereas Zayas can be explosive.
If I had to hazard a guess I’d say the fight goes over 5.5 rounds but it could be a close call and I haven’t got involved personally.
Main image: Lopez (left) makes his first foray into the 140lbs division against Campa (right) on Saturday night. Photo: Mikey Williams/Top Rank.