IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston looks for the betting value in this weekend’s boxing action involving light-heavyweight hope Joshua Buatsi and former world champion Ivan Baranchyk.
Joshua Buatsi tops the bill on the Matchroom Sunday show at Milton Keynes. He’s defending his WBA International light-heavy title in a scheduled 12-round bout against the unbeaten but untested Marko Calic, from Croatia. This is Buatsi’s first fight since he broke down tough Canadian Ryan Ford in seven rounds in August 2019. It was Buatsi’s 10th KO win in a 12-0 record and obviously, the undefeated, heavy-handed GB Olympic representative is a lopsided favourite for Sunday’s bout.
Calic is 33 years old. He defeated up-and-comer Alen Babic twice in four meetings in the Croatian amateur championships and he boxed in major international tournaments and also competed in the World Series of Boxing. He’s a tall, somewhat gangling fighter, the type who isn’t easy to get out of there.
Although Calic seems to be a basic type of boxer, using the jab and right hand to follow, he has shown toughness throughout his long amateur career and he won bouts at the international level. He had success with long-range boxing under the amateur system, using his reach and picking up points.
From footage I’ve watched, though, Calic doesn’t seem to be special in any area. Ireland’s Joe Ward outclassed Calic in a five-round bout in the World Series of Boxing but Calic hung in there.
As a pro, Calic has been matched soft, as they say in the business. His 11 opponents have been stopped a total of about 100 times between them. But Calic has beaten whoever has been placed in front of him and he can’t do more than that. By winning all his fights, and with his respectable amateur credentials, Calic kept himself in the picture for a high-profile type of fight as an opponent for the A-side of the promotion. Now he has his opportunity, in a fight that will be televised on Sky Sports in the UK and DAZN in the US.
The big question here isn’t so much whether Buatsi wins but how he wins. The oddsmaker has set an over/under of 5.5 rounds, which looks about right. Buatsi might not be in any hurry to get a KO after being inactive for more than a year due to Covid-19. It could suit Buatsi’s purposes to go some rounds. And a fighter such as Calic isn’t easy to stop. It’s easy to visualise Calic taking a step back as Buatsi takes a step forward, clinching, and throwing enough punches to keep his more powerful opponent from walking straight through him.
Buatsi should eventually get to his man with a fight-ending onslaught but, that said, it’s not that unusual for a fighter to go the distance when the pundits predict a knockout. Think of Calic’s compatriot, Zeljko Mavrovic, going the full 12 rounds with Lennox Lewis.
The over 5.5 rounds proposition at around even money looks promising. Buatsi by KO is offered at 5/1 on, which is a bit steep but seems the likely result. Twelve rounds is a long way to go with a puncher of Buatsi’s calibre.
The weekend’s other big fight is at the MGM Grand ‘bubble’ in Las Vegas on Saturday when Ivan Baranchyk goes in with Jose Zepeda in a clash of world-class junior welterweights.
I’ve gone back and forth a bit on this one but as the bout drew nearer I found myself liking Baranchyk’s chances. But the betting line has worsened from about -140 in US odds to about -170 at some shops and I don’t like playing negative odds in a 50-50 fight.
BoxRec listed the bout as a 12-rounder. Top Rank matchmaker Brad Goodman told me this morning that, in fact, the fight is a 10-rounder and always was 10 rounds. I sure miss the days when a guy knew for sure what the fight distance would be. In a 12-rounder, I would go for Baranchyk. On paper, 10 rounds is likely to be to Zepeda’s advantage more than Baranchyk’s because Baranchyk has to depend on a wearing-down assault. Two rounds fewer to worry about should, then help Zepeda, who is the house fighter on the Top Rank promotion.
Baranchyk, 27, is the younger, stronger fighter. Zepeda, 31, has the edge in terms of boxing skills, and he’s a southpaw. The question, for me, is whether Zepeda can keep outboxing Baranchyk for 10 rounds. It’s 50-50 that he can.
Zepeda, from southern California but of Mexican heritage, is something of a hard-luck fighter. He suffered a dislocated shoulder in the second round when meeting Terry Flanagan in a lightweight title bout in the UK. As a junior welter, Zepeda lost a very close, majority decision in a title challenge against Jose Ramirez on the champion’s home ground in Fresno, California. Zepeda has twice had fights end in no decisions due to head clashes and each time he looked a nailed-on winner.
Photo: Mikey Williams/Top Rank.
But, ill fortune aside, Zepeda is in top form. He fought Ramirez almost even-up, and in his last two fights Zepeda showed sharp boxing skills in winning unanimous decisions over Jose Pedraza and Kendo Castaneda.
The Miami-based Baranchyk, meanwhile, had a deep amateur background, representing Belarus on the international stage and winning a youth world championship. His only pro loss came when Josh Taylor defeated him on a unanimous decision in Scotland. Baranchyk was down twice in the sixth round but fought back strongly. He won five of the 12 rounds on the scorecards of two of the judges. Baranchyk came back with a TKO win in four rounds over Gabriel Bracero last October, simply overpowering the capable veteran in four rounds.
If Baranchyk was able to keep taking the fight to Josh Taylor for 12 rounds, you have to figure he can do the same against Zepeda for 10 rounds. Taylor had the firepower to hurt Baranchyk and the speed and smarts to make him miss and make him pay. But then, one would place Taylor on a higher level than Zepeda. Take away the two knockdowns, and Baranchyk vs Taylor would have been a close fight on the scorecards (or at least on two of the cards). Baranchyk is insistent and heavy handed. He really brings it.
Zepeda can punch hard enough to get respect, but it takes a lot to discourage Baranchyk. While Baranchyk is hittable, his attack is his best defence. Zepeda has a tricky southpaw style but Baranchyk was highly competitive against top-calibre southpaw Taylor and he was far too strong for the smart Swedish left-hander, Anthony Yigit. I think his relentless aggression is going to be a bit too much for the more polished Zepeda.
I thought that “fight to go distance — no” at 11/4 (lay four to win 11) at BetFred might have some value, but that was based on the contest being 12 rounds. Baranchyk usually gets stuck right into his opponents and Zepeda doesn’t usually do a lot of moving around the ring. There’s a chance that this could be high contact from very early in the proceedings.
However, with the fight distance listed in error, there are likely to be all manner of grading issues for bettors who play “will go distance” or “won’t go distance”. Some sportsbooks simply void wagers when the number of rounds changes from the number listed on BoxRec. Other sportsbooks have a rule that a change in rounds doesn’t affect the wager: thus, if you bet on a fight not going the distance based on a 12-rounder and the fight goes off as a 10-rounder, and the fight goes the 10-round distance, it’s no use arguing that your bet was based on two extra rounds — you lose. So, check the rules at your sportsbook.
Main image: Buatsi (left) returns against Calic on Sunday. Photo: Mark Robinson, Matchroom Boxing.