Weekend betting angle including Haney-Gamboa and Ortiz-Flores

IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston looks for the betting value in this weekend’s boxing schedule including Devin Haney’s test against Yuriorkis Gamboa and heavyweight action involving Luis Ortiz, Filip Hrgovic and Zhang Zhilei.

There’s not much to entice bettors on the two shows in the US tonight (early Sunday am in the UK) but here’s a look at what’s on offer.

The big fight tonight is Devin Haney defending his WBC lightweight title against Yuriorkis Gamboa at the “other” Hollywood, the one in Florida. Haney, unsurprisingly, is an off-the-charts favourite.

There is some pressure on Haney here to do more than just cruise to a widely expected win. Rival lightweight champions, Teofimo Lopez and Tank Davis have made the boxing world sit up and take notice in recent weeks. Lopez upset the odds by outscoring Vasiliy Lomachenko while Tank scored that vivid one-punch knockout over Leo Santa Cruz last weekend.

Haney, still only 21, has said he wants to make a statement against Gamboa. He told interviewer Todd Grisham after weighing in on Friday that he wants to beat Gamboa worse than anyone has ever beaten him.

It’s all well and good to talk the talk. Can Haney walk the walk by getting the experienced and crafty Gamboa out of the fight inside 12 rounds? I think he can.

Gamboa turns 39 next month. He surprised almost everyone in the fight fraternity by lasting into the 12th and final round against Tank Davis last December, and while under the handicap of an Achilles tear, too.

However, I think we saw an unmotivated, somewhat sloppy Tank in that fight.

All three of Gamboa’s defeats have been inside the distance. Terence Crawford stopped him in the ninth round (no disgrace there) and three years ago the Mexican fighter Robinson Castellanos battered Gamboa into defeat on a corner retirement after seven rounds.

Gamboa came back well, putting together four wins in a  row to earn the lightweight title shot against Tank. But how much motivation does Gamboa still have at his advanced age?

The stage looks set for Haney to get a stoppage. However, Haney isn’t the type who goes after an opponent with all guns blazing. He likes to box nicely, do some sharpshooting from the outside and gradually break his man down with an accumulation of punches.

While Haney scored a spectacular KO over Mexico’s Antonio Moran it was a bit of an aberration. I struggle to think of another fight in which Haney blew out his opponent with one big right hand.

So, I’m expecting Haney to box carefully in the early rounds against Gamboa, while his veteran opponent is still potentially dangerous.

But how much does Haney really have to fear? Gamboa knocked out a faded Rocky Martinez in two rounds but other than that he has been winning on points for the last five years.

Gamboa knows how to fight, of course. He looked sensational in the early part of his career, a tropical storm blowing in from Cuba. But now he is an ageing fighter with a lot of miles on the clock. It’s 16 years since he won his Olympic gold medal in Athens. 

I see Haney overwhelming Gamboa with punch-variety and youthful energy some time around the eighth round. But if you feel like backing the KO TKO proposition you have to pay quite a stiff entry price (2/7, or -350, at Betfred). Some books offer a total rounds proposition of 7.5 rounds. It’s basically even money on whether the fight goes over or under 7.5. I lean a little towards the under.

The other significant action tonight is in the heavyweight division with China’s undefeated Zhang Zhilei, another undefeated former amateur standout, Filip Hrgovic, and veteran contender Luis Ortiz (41 going on 51) in scheduled 10-rounders.

China’s Olympic super-heavyweight silver medallist Zhang is being steered towards a shot at one of the heavyweight titles. The 6ft 6ins, 260lbs Zhang is hugely favoured to defeat Devin Vargas on the Haney vs Gamboa undercard.

Zhang is 37 and time isn’t on his side. But Vargas is a year older at 38 and has been stopped five times. I think this fight — which will be televised live in China — has been made for Zhang to get a KO win.

Croatia’s European amateur champ Hrgovic talks of using his boxing skills and not going for KO against Rydell Booker, who knows how to survive and has never been stopped. However, it would be seen as disappointing if Hrgovic goes the full 10 rounds against the 39-year-old from Detroit. Betfred has a line of 2/15 (-750) for Hrgovic to get the job done inside 10 rounds. 

Some books offer a “total rounds” of 5.5 rounds for Hrgovic vs Booker. The “over 5.5” is priced at 10/13 (-130). I think this proposition is worth considering. Booker goes into a defensive shell when the other man opens up, and it is difficult to stop an opponent who isn’t willing to engage. Betting on an over/under is sometimes sheer guesswork but I’ll guess at this one going over the allotted number of rounds, if only because Hrgovic seems to be thinking along the lines of a long fight

So that’s our look at what’s offered on the Matchroom USA show in Florida. Over on the West Coast on Saturday night/Sunday morning, Luis Ortiz gets what looks like a showcase fight against Alexander Flores at the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles.

Flores is frankly an ordinary fighter and not too durable. He was KO’d in the two fights where he stepped up in class, against Charles Martin and Joseph Parker. It really does look just a matter of time before Ortiz times Flores for a fight-ending left hand from his southpaw stance but the KO prop is priced high at -800.

The bet I liked most this weekend was the under 5.5 rounds in the Zhang vs Vargas meeting. However, most books have lopped a round off of this proposition, dropping the number to 4.5. (This has been a new development in the “under/over” market this year, with books adding a round or taking off a round from the total, depending on player action. It doesn’t get any easier for bettors.)

Finding value in this weekend’s market is a challenge. If your book allows you to parlay proposition bets, I like the idea of Haney by KO TKO DQ paired in a double with Zhang KO TKO DQ. Its’s a bit pricey at about -154 but that would be my preferred play of the weekend. 

Main image: Ed Mulholland/Matchroom USA.