IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston seeks the betting value in tonight’s rematches pitting Joseph Parker vs Dereck Chisora and Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley.

Joseph Parker coming in at a career-heaviest 251lbs for tonight’s rematch with Dereck Chisora puts a new spin on the fight. 

We can be sure that Parker has been working hard under the direction of his new trainer, the ex-champion Andy Lee. So it’s not as if Parker hasn’t prepared well. The fact that Parker is 10lbs heavier than he was for the first fight with Chisora suggests that this time the New Zealand heavyweight plans to do less moving than in the first meeting. 

This opens up a new angle for bettors, to wit: Will Parker be looking to meet Chisora in the centre of the ring and try to hurt him rather than outpoint him?

With the extra heft to carry around it seems unlikely that Parker plans to jab and move. And if these two big men get involved in a war of attrition, the chances of the fight not going the distance are surely increased. 

But who knows? Perhaps that extra weight is simply designed to help Parker better withstand Chisora’s bullying attacks and to push back when it comes to bone-on-bone contact. All will be revealed on fight night.

Parker is the favourite (2/5, or -250) at Betfred. He won the first fight in May and if either man can improve on his showing from the initial meeting it is more likely to be Parker. 

The 248lbs Chisora will be doing what he always does, which is to come forward with relentless pressure, letting the big punches fly. It almost worked last time, and if you like Chisora’s chances of getting the win this time around you’ll be attracted by the odds of 2/1 (+200).

Neither man ever looked like being stopped in the first meeting. But these are heavyweights and Chisora is getting up there in age at 37. Another distance fight looks quite possible. But how many more long, gruelling fights does Chisora have in him? Odds are basically pick ’em on the “Distance — Yes” and “Distance — No” propositions.

Parker is 29 and one would expect him to benefit from having had a longer training camp with Andy Lee. And while Chisora fought him down to the wire in May, it seems logical that Parker will have learned from the first fight. These are reasons why the oddsmaker favours Parker.

If you, too, expect Parker to win but don’t want to lay the price on a straight-up wager, you might be interested in the proposition markets. 

Parker to win by decision is the favoured outcome at 4/6 (-150). 

If you think Parker’s extra bulk and possibly more physical approach, plus Chisora’s advancing years, increase the likelihood of the younger man getting a stoppage win, you’re looking at odds of 2/1 (+200) for a KO TKO DQ outcome.

A Parker victory certainly isn’t a sure thing, though. Chisora will be in there swinging as long as he is on his feet. But I’m going with Parker to win because Chisora threw everything he had at him in the initial meeting and still came up short on the scorecards. This time Parker knows what to expect. But, decision or stoppage? It’s a tough call. I’m leaning towards Parker again winning by decision, but a safer bet might be to take the “Distance — Yes” proposition at around 5/6 (-120).

Across the Atlantic, in Florida, Jake Paul is favoured to beat ex-MMA star Tyron Woodley in their rematch. Woodley looked in great shape at the weigh-in even though he took the fight as a replacement for the injured Tommy Fury.

Paul did a good job of hitting and moving to win a split decision over Woodley in the first meeting, but he had to survive an anxious moment when a right hand sent him staggering back into the ropes. Woodley is the heavier-handed fighter, Paul is bigger, younger and has the greater boxing ability — and, yes, the social-media sensation can box a bit. Long hours in the gym boxing with pros has paid off for Paul. 

I’m not sure if Woodley can get much better at the age of 39. He had his big moment in the first fight but failed to follow up. And in MMA circles the biggest criticism of Woodley, as I understand it, was that he tended to wait for perfect openings and just didn’t let his hands go enough in the stand-up fighting. 

Paul, 24, says he has learned from the first fight with Woodley and promises an improved performance. I’ll say this for Paul — if you can put his YouTube antics to one side I think we have to admit that he takes his boxing seriously. I believe it’s important to Paul that he wins this fight but I don’t expect him to shoot for a stoppage. 

Woodley is strong, tough and dangerous so I think we’ll see Paul pumping out the jab, using his legs, and looking to keep the fight on the outside rather than getting involved in risky exchanges. Betfred offers Paul to win by decision at 10/13 (-130). I like that bet.

Main image: Parker and Chisora collide again tonight in Manchester. Photo: Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing.