IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston unearths the betting value in tonight’s IBF super-middleweight title clash between unbeaten champion Caleb ‘Sweet Hands’ Plant and former belt holder Caleb Truax.
Caleb Plant is obviously a massive favourite (1/33 at Betfred) against Caleb Truax in Saturday night’s 168lbs title fight in Los Angeles. So, a bettor has to look at the various proposition markets to find value.
The oddsmaker expects Plant to win inside the distance. This proposition is offered at a variety of outlets at around 4/11 (-275). Personally, I am expecting a stoppage win for Plant. But the ticket price is a bit steep when you consider that Plant has been the full distance in five of his last seven bouts.
We know that Plant isn’t what you would call a big puncher. He is a skilled boxer but he can be quite patient and careful. When a bettor is playing a fight not to go the distance, the rounds can seem to go by awfully quickly when the superior boxer is scoring points without really pressing for a stoppage.
However, if Plant feels he has an opponent right where he wants him, he will open up impressively. He has excellent hand speed. Plant destroyed Mike Lee, who was basically a novice fighter despite his unbeaten record. He broke down and stopped the strong and willing Vincent Feigenbutz.
You have to take what boxers say with a grain of salt, but Plant promises we will see the best version of him we have ever seen when he meets Truax. Actually, he could be right there. Truax is an ageing fighter. He is slow, and he isn’t too difficult to hit.
Truax has been a victim of ill fortune in the past couple of years. In 2019 he suffered an ankle injury and had to withdraw from a scheduled rematch with Peter Quillin. Last year he came down with an undisclosed illness and had to pull out of a fight.
Although Truax is talking a good fight he is 37 years old and he looked sadly faded in his last appearance in the ring when, at home in Minnesota, he barely edged out decision over a 41-year-old Ugandan boxer named David Basajjamivule.
However, Truax has always been a gritty, durable type of boxer. He lasted into the 12th round against Daniel Jacobs. Although Anthony Dirrell stopped Truax in the first round it was one of those “caught cold” things. Truax came back to pull off a major upset when he defeated James DeGale in London to become 168-pound champion in December 2017.
But Truax didn’t show the urgency or intensity of the first meeting with DeGale when they met in a rematch in Las Vegas.
Truax trudged forward and seemed to be pushing his punches as the DeGale rematch went into the later rounds. It was anyone’s fight after 10 rounds but DeGale outworked and outpunched Truax to sweep the last two rounds on the judges’ cards. DeGale had just two more fights after this, retiring after losing to Chris Eubank Jr.
Truax looked an old fighter in that second meeting with DeGale. He was cut over both eyes. That was three years ago, against a diminished DeGale. Truax is hardly likely to have improved. And he is meeting a younger, faster fighter, one who is in the best form of his life, on Saturday.
Plant has his sights on a fight with superstar Canelo Alvarez. A safety-first win on points against Truax will not be a good look. In the US, the Truax bout is being televised nationally in peak viewing hours on the Fox network. This is wonderful exposure for Plant. Surely, one feels, he will want to make the most of his opportunity.
The under 8.5 rounds is available at slightly above even money. That’s tempting, because one can easily visualise a punch-accumulation type of stoppage win for Plant around the seventh or eighth round.
However, the round-group proposition of Plant to win in rounds 7-12 might be a better bet. The ticket price for this is 11/8 (+138).
As always with these proposition bets, they can go either way. But Plant isn’t known for all-out onslaughts. I think the likely scenario is that Plant will box, move, look classy and simply put rounds in the bank until he feels he has Truax well and truly worn down.
But, when all is said and done, this is a showcase for Plant. He really shouldn’t be letting it go to the final bell.
