Gennady Golovkin has been a reasonably prohibitive favourite in the vast majority of 17 defences of his eminent claim to world middleweight primacy.
But on September 16 in the storied Mecca of Las Vegas, the Kazakh kingpin enters into a fight regarded as a ‘pick em’ affair by the the industry and mainstream alike.

Here are arguably the top 5 reasons why some savvy observers are predicting that Saul ‘Canello’ Alvarez will hand ‘Triple G’ his first paid reversal:

1/ ‘Canelo Is A Better Boxer Than Golovkin.’

While the above might be a contentious assertion, Golovkin is generally regarded as a
‘seek and destroy’ puncher who is willing to take a few shots on the way in and doesn’t look to blind his opponents with science.

Alvarez might be in the classic Mexican pressure fighter mould but when it comes to hand speed and the subtle nuances of technique he is perceived as superior in this regard, at least.

2/ ‘Canelo Has The Better Defence.’

Admittedly, this is a component of the first assertion but in a fight between two punchers of proven durability at top level, the ability to not get hit is seen by many as the pivotal factor,

Some analysts insist that Gennady has a selective attitude towards defence based on the level of respect he holds for an opponent’s power but he will never be confused with a prime Wilfred Benitez, regardless.

Alvarez has notably struggled with slick fighters who like to use the ring but is defensively sound and knows how to be ‘cute’ when required.

3/ The Danny Jacobs Fight

Not only did the ‘Golden Child’ from Brooklyn become this first of Golovkijn’s 17 title challengers to see the final bell, it is also fair to say that a sizeable portion of the world boxing audience thought that Jacobs rightfully won.

Regardless of your view of the official verdict the resonant implication was that the Russian assassin is either on the slide or perhaps not the invincible monster of popular perception.

4/ Father Time

Continuing on a theme, there is an old adage in the fight game that states no great champion can ultimately defeat the old man who personifies the encroaching years. His mythical properties include a facility to erode a fighter’s reflexes and denude him of his former punch resistance.

At 35 Golovkin isn’t old by modern athletic standards but the calendars plain evidence informs us that Alvarez is the younger man and might be logically regarded as closer to his fistic prime.

5/ The Judges

When Alvarez was the beneficiary of what many might call a ‘squeeze’ against Cuban southpaw Erislandy Lara in 2014, legendary promoter, Barry Hearn, was led to conclude.”It was a close fight but Canelo is the bigger commercial animal. I’m not saying it’s crooked but there is a natural tendency to lean towards the bigger commercial animal.”

In a fight that many are predicting will go the distance, one can never underestimate the crucial importance of the 3 official arbiters at ringside. There are those who believe that Alvarez lost to the aforementioned Lara as well as Austin Trout and Miguel Cotto by any pure boxing based appraisal but the record books say otherwise.

If this one goes down the wire and a degree of bias enters the equation that it seems more likely to be in the Latin Golden Boy’s favour.