IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston weighs up the betting value in this weekend’s fascinating cruiserweight clash between IBF champion and division No.1 Mairis Briedis and undefeated challenger Jai Opetaia.
We have a fighter of proven ability going against a fighter of considerable potential when Latvia’s Mairis Briedis defends his cruiser title against unbeaten southpaw Jai Opetaia in the challenger’s home country of Australia on Saturday. So, which of them can the bettor trust?
Briedis is the obvious favourite. Betfred offers the champion at 1/2 (-200). Briedis can box and punch and he’s beaten world-class fighters (including three world champions). His only loss was on a very close decision against Oleksandr Usyk. Meanwhile, we don’t know the level that Opetaia can reach. But the Australian of Samoan ancestry is the younger man — he’s 26, while Briedis is 37 —and Opetaia will be on home ground. If you like Opetaia’s chances, Betfred has him priced at 13/8 (+160).
The people guiding Opetaia’s career are really rolling the dice here. Opetaia has never met anyone on Briedis’ level. Not even close. But Opetaia has done everything asked of him in a 21-0 (17 KOs) record. He’s hardly lost a round.
As an amateur, Opetaia was world junior championships gold medallist and lost by one point on the computer scoring system in his opening bout in the London Olympics. (The fighter who edged him out, Azerbaijan’s Teymur Mammadov, won the bronze medal at the London Games.)
Opetaia admits that he hasn’t been meeting a high standard of opposition as a pro but promises that this fight will prove he’s truly on the highest world level. Also, Opetaia had surgery to repair lingering injuries to his left hand, and he believes he’s poised to deliver the best fight of his career now that he can punch with full force with the left hand. His promoter, Dean Lonergan, feels that the better the opponent, the better Opetaia fights. “No matter how high you set the bar, he will get up there,” Lonergan told the Australian media. “I think you’re going to be astounded how good Jai Opetaia is.”
There are certainly things to like about Opetaia. He has excellent hand speed and punch-variety. His right hook to the body is a strength-sapping shot. He’s big, strong and athletic. However, Opetaia doesn’t have any notable wins, unless you include an eight-round TKO over Mark Flanagan, who went the full 12 rounds with Denis Lebedev and lasted into the ninth against the tank-like Arsen Goulamirian.
Briedis is far more battle-tested. He’s won on the road, so boxing in Australia, with a neutral referee and neutral judges, shouldn’t faze him. And Briedis has, of course, fought a far higher level of opposition. There was the narrow loss to Usyk and wins over champions Marco Huck (on Huck’s home ground in Germany), Krzysztof Glowacki and Yuniel Dorticos. The southpaw stance of Opetaia is unlikely to be a factor considering Briedis handled left-handers Mike Perez and Glowacki.
Still, Briedis has had his difficult fights. He struggled with Mike Perez and Noel Gevor, who both won rounds against him. While Briedis won these fights fairly and squarely they were hardly dominant performances. It is four and a half years since probably his best-ever showing, when he fought Usyk right down to the wire in Latvia. And Briedis is 37 and has been boxing professionally for more than 12 years. Opetaia is younger and fresher. But is Opetaia ready for this huge step up in class?
If Opetaia is going to win, he will need to rise to a new level. We just don’t know whether he can do so. Briedis is a heavy right-hand puncher, but Opetaia seems to have a good chin. If Opetaia can get into the fight from the start, let his hands go and stay away from Briedis’ right hand, he can gain a foothold in the contest.
I think Opetaia’s hand speed can give Briedis problems. But Briedis will be bringing pressure. If Opetaia can stand up to Briedis’ application of force and come back with sharp punches, I believe he can win this fight. Opetaia seems genuinely confident, as do the people around him. The bout had to be postponed from its original date of April 6 when Briedis came down with Covid. One must assume that Briedis has shaken off the effects of the virus, but people react to Covid in different ways. If Briedis isn’t at his absolute best physically there could be a problem.
If you just can’t make up your mind who will win, “Distance — Yes” is offered at 5/8 (-160) across the industry. This is a fair price. I’ve never seen Briedis hurt in any of his big fights. And Opetaia, being of Samoan stock, is likely to have a dependable chin (a la David Tua and Joseph Parker, say). I see this as most likely being a full-distance fight.
If, like me, you give Opetaia a real chance, you might be interested in the decision proposition. This is generally priced at 12/5 (+240). But there’s not a whole lot of difference between the decision proposition and the price for Opetaia simply to win. I’d personally stick with the money-line rather than get fancy with propositions if you’re going for the upset.
For those who consider Briedis will be just too experienced and too good, the decision proposition is offered at a general price of 7/4 (+175), which isn’t a bad look if you’re siding with the champion.
But the prop bet I prefer is the 5/8 (-160) on the fight going the distance.
As for the outright winner, I’m edging towards Opetaia. Timing is important in boxing. The big question is whether Opetaia’s connections have got the timing right. It’s tricky, but, at plus odds, I’m willing to gamble that the Opetaia side has indeed made this fight at the right time.