IBHOF inductee and boxing betting expert Graham Houston looks ahead to the weekend’s big heavyweight fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin from a gambling perspective.
Dillian Whyte, who seems to have been waiting for ages to get a heavyweight title fight, faces what should be a final hurdle when he meets former champion Alexander Povetkin at Matchroom’s Fight Camp on Saturday.
The fight has an element of risk, obviously. Povetkin is very experienced and he is a dangerous puncher with the left hook, and also with the overhand right. However, Povetkin turns 41 next month. He’s been boxing professionally for 15 years, after a long amateur career that saw him win an Olympic gold medal.
Frankly, Povetkin hasn’t been looking too impressive lately. In his last two fights he won a somewhat lacklustre decision over Hughie Fury, who didn’t have the firepower to discourage him, and then looked a bit lucky to get a draw with Michael Hunter, who wobbled him in the first round.
Even in his fifth-round KO win over David Price there was a shaky moment when Price sent him into the ropes with a left hook to bring an eight count.
Povetkin has always shown a good chin, but he was down several times in his loss to Wladimir Klitschko while Anthony Joshua stopped him in the seventh round two years ago. It seems a reasonable assumption that Whyte hits heavily enough to hurt Povetkin. But can he hurt him enough to force a stoppage?
The betting odds haven’t moved much at all for this fight. Whyte opened as a -400 (4/1 on) favourite but some money has shown for Povetkin. At last look we were seeing Whyte as low as -325 (13/4 on).
Why the lack of market confidence in Whyte? I think one reason is that he struggled against Mariusz Wach in his last fight. Whyte even got rocked a bit. But Whyte came into that fight heavier than usual and it’s fair to say he wasn’t in optimum fighting shape.
Another likely reason the betting public has some doubts is due to Whyte leaving trainer Mark Tibbs. Whyte seemed to be improving under Tibbs’ direction. Now Whyte is working with a relatively unknown trainer in Xavier Miller, who was formerly assistant trainer. This might not be a terribly bad thing, though. At least Whyte is familiar with Miller’s training methods. And Whyte is now a seasoned fighter. He knows what he’s doing in the ring. However, Tibbs has guided Whyte through some rough moments in fights. Will Miller be able to offer cool counsel in the corner if things go wrong in the Povetkin fight? We can’t be certain.
Then, there is the matter of Whyte having been knocked down in the fights with Oscar Rivas and Joseph Parker. If Povetkin hits him flush with the left hook or right hand, there could be a problem.
On the plus side for Whyte backers, there is the age factor. Whyte is 32 and doesn’t have Povetkin’s ring mileage. Also, we know Whyte can dig down and come through when under pressure. He has shown he can get off the canvas to win. He prevailed in gruelling fights with a fired-up Dereck Chisora.
Povetkin, of course, has a history of failed drug tests. He went into his fight with the towering Johann Duhaupas in Russia after a drug-test failure. Povetkin was fast, sharp and explosive in that fight, which was almost four years ago. He absolutely flattened Duhaupas, who had lasted into the 11th round against Deontay Wilder a year earlier. Povetkin hasn’t looked quite the same since.
Whyte has boxing skills. He is capable of throwing a variety of punches. He has an excellent jab and left hook. I think Whyte will be able to keep control of the fight with the jab. Povetkin is a sound ring mechanic but Whyte is likely to be the busier fighter, letting his hands go while Povetkin seeks to keep boxing at a measured pace.
It looks likely to be a long, gruelling fight. But, at the age of 41 (almost) Povetkin might not be able to maintain consistent pressure. Whyte is likely to be winning most of the rounds on the jab and workrate.
I’m expecting a Whyte win, but laying 4/1 on doesn’t appeal to me.
The oddsmaker sees slightly less chance of Whyte winning on points (+150, or 3/2) than by stoppage (+138, or 7/5). The over/under has been set at 10.5 rounds, with the over favoured at -138 (7/5) and the under at even money.
If Whyte does get a stoppage, it figures to be in the second half of the fight. So, Whyte to win in rounds 7-12 at +333 (333/100) looks promising. But the bet I like is the fight not to go the distance. This is priced at pick ’em odds (10/11 either side, take your pick).
It just seems to me that Whyte — younger, bigger, heavier, better hand speed, better jab, higher workrate — is going to be able to wear down Povetkin. But there is always the chance that Povetkin could detonate a big punch. So, with “fight won’t go distance” you’re covered on both sides of the play.
If you like the idea of the fight not going the distance, Betfred offer this at -120 (10/11). Those are fair odds. It’s a coin toss whether or not the fight completes the 12 rounds. Personally, I edge towards “won’t go the distance” and that’s where I’m putting my money.
The WBC ‘Diamond’ heavyweight title fight between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin will be broadcast live on Sky Sports Box Office on Saturday in the UK.