IBHOF inductee and boxing gambling expert Graham Houston unearths the betting value in tonight’s fascinating super-middleweight clash between Mexican star Canelo Alvarez and Liverpool’s unbeaten Callum Smith.
It’s the last major fight of the old year tonight (early hours of Sunday in the UK) when Canelo Alvarez challenges Callum Smith for the 168-pound title at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Canelo is a 2/9 (-450) favourite at Betfred. If you fancy Smith to upset the Mexican superstar, you will see great value in the price of 4/1 (+400).
Let’s take a look at the fight and weigh up likely outcomes.
First, while Smith towers over Canelo he isn’t the type who moves and jabs. Essentially, Smith is a pressure fighter. Even if he stays back and counters, as he did in his last fight, against John Ryder, he isn’t elusive. Smith certainly won’t be running. This means that Canelo should be able to land punches. But Smith will be letting his own shots go and he can fight well up close, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him looking to crowd Canelo rather than trying to make it a long-range contest.
Of course, Canelo had no trouble chopping down the much taller Rocky Fielding. He is accustomed to meeting taller men. But the height difference in the fight with Smith is striking, maybe even a bit alarming if you’re a Canelo backer.
Smith can fight. The champion from Liverpool hits hard and he has excellent hand speed. Despite what the odds suggest, Smith is certainly capable of pulling off the upset.
Still, Canelo didn’t have to take this fight. There were other options. His team must have seen something in Smith that made them feel he was the right opponent. Perhaps Team Canelo is going by Smith’s struggling win over Ryder, a shorter fighter with a Canelo-type frame. Ryder was able to close in on Smith and catch him with clean punches. Maybe Canelo’s camp feels that if Ryder could get to Smith, even bully him a bit, then so can Canelo.
One has to admire Canelo’s desire to be great. He has consistently faced dangerous, difficult opponents. A four-weight world champion (154, 160, 168 and 175 pounds) he now seeks to be champ again at 168 pounds. Probably 168 is the right weight for Canelo at the age of 30. He looked tremendous on the scales. I thought Smith looked very good, too. Both men came in at the super middle limit but Smith will probably be the heavier man by eight to 10 pounds in the ring on fight night.
The question most of us are asking concerns Smith’s fight with John Ryder. Was that just an off night, with Smith maybe having underestimated his opponent in a fight he was expected to win easily? I think perhaps this was the case. In the biggest fight of his life, I am sure we will see a much better version of Smith than the one who showed up against Ryder. This leads me to believe that Smith is going to be competitive against Canelo. Competitive enough to win? I wouldn’t go quite as far as that. But competitive enough to take the fight into the later rounds at least? Yes, I can see that.
When you think about it, a number of Canelo’s stoppage wins have come later in the fight. He didn’t get the KO against Sergey Kovalev until the 11th round. It took him nine rounds to stop Callum’s brother, Liam Smith. The third-round destruction of Rocky Fielding was dynamic, but Callum Smith got Fielding out of there in the first round.
Canelo isn’t a relentless aggressor. He tends to fight in spurts. He is heavy handed and he is capable of putting together high-quality combinations, but he prefers to fight at a measured pace. If past performances are anything to go by, I think we will see Canelo looking to break Smith down in a measured manner. And I believe Smith has the fighting spirit and the fistic attributes to test Canelo and keep him on the defensive for parts of every round. I do think that Canelo can steal rounds with eye-catching bursts of punches but it would surprise me if he ended this with a vivid early rounds stoppage.
Smith can punch but he’s had his share of long fights, and we know that Canelo is exceptionally sturdy. So it would be a stunning result if Smith stopped the granite-chinned Mexican fighter.
As ever, anything can happen in a boxing match but I’m not seeing an upset. I believe Canelo will win — but not quickly.
We’re seeing the over 9.5 rounds priced at 4/6.“Fight to go the distance” is priced at 7/5. Both bets have some value because this looks like being a long, draining fight.
Smith to win by decision is an interesting proposition at huge odds (something like 11/1). I don’t agree with the premise that Smith cannot possibly get a decision over Canelo. I believe that if Smith wins the fight clearly, he will get the verdict.
But if it’s a close contest, with a number of either-way rounds, one would expect Canelo to get the nod simply because of who he is and what he means to boxing in the US.
A proposition offered by Betfred of Canelo to win in rounds 10-12 at 6/1 (+600) caught my eye. That could happen. But the bet I prefer is “fight to go the distance” at 7/5. You’re getting plus odds here. Canelo vs Kovalev looked nailed-on to go the distance heading into the 11th round when Canelo suddenly landed a big right hand and Kovalev “went”. Before that, Canelo had been the 12-round distance in four of his last five fights. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr was virtually a punching bag on legs but he went 12 rounds with Canelo.
I think Smith can grit it out for 12 rounds. If he pulls off the big surprise it would rank with the all-time greatest away wins by a British boxer. And if Canelo blasts out Smith inside the distance I would consider it one of the greatest performances by any boxer in this troubled year of 2020.